ICE Brent Crude Oil APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
44.10%
decreased by 2.60%
1 Week
44.05%
decreased by 2.65%
1 Month
43.87%
decreased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.44 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0566 | 15.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0980 | 23.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9020 | 243.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1960 | 7.44*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4417 | 24.14*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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