V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
37.22%
1 Week
37.36%
1 Month
37.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0565 | 3.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9027 | 62.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.1875 | 1.84* |
| δpower | 1.4626 | 6.09*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0565 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9027 | 62.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1875 | 1.84* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4626 | 6.09*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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