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ICE Brent Crude Oil APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

37.22%

increased by 0.32%

1 Week

37.36%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

37.89%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifeδ = 1.46 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0565
3.93***
αARCH0.0973
6.03***
βGARCH0.9027
62.23***
γleverage0.1875
1.84*
δpower1.4626
6.09***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0565
3.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0973
6.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9027
62.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1875
1.84*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4626
6.09***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days