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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

44.10%

decreased by 2.60%

1 Week

44.05%

decreased by 2.65%

1 Month

43.87%

decreased by 2.83%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.44 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0566
15.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
23.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9020
243.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1960
7.44***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4417
24.14***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days