LME/COMEX Aluminum APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.67%
1 Week
18.76%
1 Month
19.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. The volatility power δ = 1.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0421 | 1.22 |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9228 | 34.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.2065 | -1.93* |
| δpower | 1.5049 | 2.97*** |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0421 | 1.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9228 | 34.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2065 | -1.93* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5049 | 2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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