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LME/COMEX Aluminum APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.67%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

18.76%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

19.08%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. The volatility power δ = 1.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifeδ = 1.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0421
1.22
αARCH0.0550
3.93***
βGARCH0.9228
34.09***
γleverage-0.2065
-1.93*
δpower1.5049
2.97***

0.971

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0421
1.22
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
3.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9228
34.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2065
-1.93*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5049
2.97***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days