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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

29.73%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

31.01%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

32.92%

increased by 3.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.0739
3.24***
βGARCH0.8088
9.46***
γleverage-0.0739
-3.21***
λ₁tau intercept0.2354
1.39
λ₂forecast adj.0.9163
8.70***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.846

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0739
3.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8088
9.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0739
-3.21***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2354
1.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9163
8.70***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.846

Half-life:

4 days