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LME/COMEX Aluminum MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

26.33%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

27.64%

increased by 1.41%

1 Month

29.13%

increased by 2.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.0747
3.34***
βGARCH0.8185
10.32***
γleverage-0.0747
-3.31***
λ₁tau intercept0.2425
1.40
λ₂forecast adj.0.9049
8.64***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.856

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0747
3.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8185
10.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0747
-3.31***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2425
1.40
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9049
8.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.856

Half-life:

4 days