V-Lab
LME/COMEX Aluminum MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.73%
1 Week
31.01%
1 Month
32.92%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.0739 | 3.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8088 | 9.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.0739 | -3.21*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2354 | 1.39 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9163 | 8.70*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.846
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 3.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8088 | 9.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0739 | -3.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2354 | 1.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9163 | 8.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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