V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
38.51%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Week
39.05%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
40.29%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 3.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8645 | 44.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0556 | 2.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0216 | 1.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0238 | 1.64 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9716 | 54.31*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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