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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

43.40%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Week

43.25%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Month

42.94%

decreased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0590
13.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8659
124.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0555
9.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0212
7.05***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0229
5.18***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9725
193.76***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days