S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
34.61%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
35.19%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
37.02%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 94% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0591 | 3.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8648 | 44.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.0554 | 2.64*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0217 | 1.17 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0241 | 1.67* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9713 | 54.61*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0591 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 44.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0554 | 2.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0217 | 1.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0241 | 1.67* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9713 | 54.61*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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