S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
42.26%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
42.21%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Month
42.29%
decreased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0586 | 13.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8660 | 123.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0558 | 9.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0213 | 7.00*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0235 | 5.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9719 | 188.36*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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