S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
43.40%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Week
43.25%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
42.94%
decreased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0590 | 13.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 124.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0555 | 9.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0212 | 7.05*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0229 | 5.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9725 | 193.76*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
Other S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities