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S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

34.61%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

35.19%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

37.02%

increased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 94% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0591
3.26***
βGARCH0.8648
44.41***
γleverage0.0554
2.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0217
1.17
λ₂forecast adj.0.0241
1.67*
λ₃tau persistence0.9713
54.61***

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
3.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8648
44.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0554
2.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0217
1.17
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0241
1.67*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9713
54.61***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days