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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

38.51%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

39.05%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Month

40.29%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
3.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8645
44.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0556
2.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0216
1.16
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0238
1.64
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9716
54.31***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days