Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

57.28%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

56.44%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Month

53.95%

decreased by 4.59%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
13.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8649
122.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0557
9.19***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0217
6.94***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0244
5.12***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9710
181.10***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days