V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
57.28%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
56.44%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Month
53.95%
decreased by 4.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0593 | 13.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8649 | 122.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0557 | 9.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0217 | 6.94*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0244 | 5.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9710 | 181.10*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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