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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

42.26%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Week

42.21%

decreased by 1.95%

1 Month

42.29%

decreased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0586
13.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8660
123.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0558
9.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0213
7.00***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0235
5.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9719
188.36***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days