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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

37.66%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Week

38.11%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Month

39.10%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 94% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0592
3.26***
βGARCH0.8647
44.29***
γleverage0.0555
2.63***
λ₁tau intercept0.0217
1.17
λ₂forecast adj.0.0241
1.66*
λ₃tau persistence0.9712
54.29***

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0592
3.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8647
44.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0555
2.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0217
1.17
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0241
1.66*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9712
54.29***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days