V-Lab
S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.86%
1 Week
48.08%
1 Month
45.89%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1076 | 26.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8869 | 151.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0928 | -21.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0221 | 4.14*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0165 | 4.52*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9791 | 215.94*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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