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S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

37.38%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

37.31%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

37.16%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1087
7.67***
βGARCH0.8851
43.46***
γleverage-0.0938
-6.30***
λ₁tau intercept0.0225
1.74*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0163
2.49**
λ₃tau persistence0.9791
112.95***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1087
7.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8851
43.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0938
-6.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0225
1.74*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0163
2.49**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9791
112.95***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days