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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

33.39%

increased by 0.19%

1 Week

33.99%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

35.14%

increased by 1.94%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1085
7.66***
βGARCH0.8852
43.43***
γleverage-0.0937
-6.29***
λ₁tau intercept0.0224
1.74*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0164
2.51**
λ₃tau persistence0.9790
113.12***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1085
7.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8852
43.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0937
-6.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0224
1.74*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0164
2.51**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9790
113.12***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days