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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

48.86%

decreased by 2.01%

1 Week

48.08%

decreased by 2.79%

1 Month

45.89%

decreased by 4.98%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1076
26.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8869
151.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0928
-21.71***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0221
4.14***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0165
4.52***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9791
215.94***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days