V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.57%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
44.36%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
43.95%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0671 | 3.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8786 | 43.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0474 | 1.93* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0163 | 0.63 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0132 | 1.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9837 | 56.52*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0671 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8786 | 43.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0474 | 1.93* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0163 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0132 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9837 | 56.52*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
Other ICE Brent Crude Oil Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities