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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

44.86%

decreased by 2.19%

1 Week

44.81%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Month

44.44%

decreased by 2.61%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0672
13.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8783
113.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0482
6.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0162
7.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0129
3.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9840
261.92***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

22 days