V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
71.25%
decreased by 3.24%
1 Week
70.33%
decreased by 4.16%
1 Month
67.39%
decreased by 7.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0647 | 12.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8812 | 114.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0494 | 6.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0156 | 7.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0127 | 3.78*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9844 | 261.45*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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