ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
41.00%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
40.84%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
40.50%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0649 | 12.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8791 | 112.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0500 | 6.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0159 | 7.43*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0127 | 3.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9841 | 262.44*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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