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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

44.57%

increased by 0.54%

1 Week

44.36%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

43.95%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0671
3.32***
βGARCH0.8786
43.34***
γleverage0.0474
1.93*
λ₁tau intercept0.0163
0.63
λ₂forecast adj.0.0132
1.01
λ₃tau persistence0.9837
56.52***

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0671
3.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8786
43.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0474
1.93*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0163
0.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0132
1.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9837
56.52***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days