ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
34.46%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
34.93%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
36.44%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0665 | 3.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8791 | 43.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0478 | 1.95* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0161 | 0.63 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0130 | 1.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9840 | 57.21*** |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0665 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8791 | 43.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0478 | 1.95* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0161 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0130 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9840 | 57.21*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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