V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.86%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Week
44.81%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
44.44%
decreased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0672 | 13.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 113.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0482 | 6.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0162 | 7.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0129 | 3.86*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9840 | 261.92*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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