ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
69.61%
increased by 38.03%
1 Week
69.02%
increased by 37.44%
1 Month
67.12%
increased by 35.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 06:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 73% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0660 | 3.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8795 | 43.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0481 | 1.97** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0160 | 0.63 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0129 | 1.02 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9840 | 57.94*** |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 3.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8795 | 43.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0481 | 1.97** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0160 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0129 | 1.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9840 | 57.94*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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