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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

71.25%

decreased by 3.24%

1 Week

70.33%

decreased by 4.16%

1 Month

67.39%

decreased by 7.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0647
12.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8812
114.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0494
6.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0156
7.60***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0127
3.78***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9844
261.45***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days