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ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026

1 Day

69.61%

increased by 38.03%

1 Week

69.02%

increased by 37.44%

1 Month

67.12%

increased by 35.54%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 06:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/02/2024

to

11/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 73% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0660
3.28***
βGARCH0.8795
43.88***
γleverage0.0481
1.97**
λ₁tau intercept0.0160
0.63
λ₂forecast adj.0.0129
1.02
λ₃tau persistence0.9840
57.94***

0.970

Persistence

22d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0660
3.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8795
43.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0481
1.97**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0160
0.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0129
1.02
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9840
57.94***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

22 days