V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
42.02%
decreased by 1.83%
1 Week
42.16%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
42.65%
decreased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2081 | 6.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0933 | 6.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8902 | 58.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0143 | 2.49** |
| γ2 | -0.0190 | -2.62*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2081 | 6.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0933 | 6.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8902 | 58.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0143 | 2.49** |
| γ2 | -0.0190 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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