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ICE Brent Crude Oil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

42.02%

decreased by 1.83%

1 Week

42.16%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Month

42.65%

decreased by 1.20%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2081
6.20***
αARCH0.0933
6.19***
βGARCH0.8902
58.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0143
2.49**
γ2-0.0190
-2.62***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2081
6.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0933
6.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8902
58.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0143
2.49**
γ2-0.0190
-2.62***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days