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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

52.46%

decreased by 2.61%

1 Week

52.24%

decreased by 2.83%

1 Month

51.45%

decreased by 3.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2113
6.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0929
6.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8903
58.19***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0145
2.51**
γ2-0.0192
-2.62***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days