ICE Brent Crude Oil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
36.23%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Week
36.59%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Month
37.84%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2046 | 6.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0932 | 6.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8902 | 58.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0141 | 2.48** |
| γ2 | -0.0188 | -2.61*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2046 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 6.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8902 | 58.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0141 | 2.48** |
| γ2 | -0.0188 | -2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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