ICE Brent Crude Oil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
52.46%
decreased by 2.61%
1 Week
52.24%
decreased by 2.83%
1 Month
51.45%
decreased by 3.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2113 | 6.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8903 | 58.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0145 | 2.51** |
| γ2 | -0.0192 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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