RBOB Gasoline Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
44.44%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Week
44.30%
decreased by 2.76%
1 Month
43.89%
decreased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5930 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1038 | 5.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8526 | 36.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0081 | 3.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.0093 | -3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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