RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
45.13%
decreased by 2.68%
1 Week
45.18%
decreased by 2.63%
1 Month
45.53%
decreased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1067 | 15.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8346 | 110.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0011 | -0.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0960 | 4.49*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0326 | 5.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9537 | 109.49*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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