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V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

45.13%

decreased by 2.68%

1 Week

45.18%

decreased by 2.63%

1 Month

45.53%

decreased by 2.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
15.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8346
110.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0011
-0.17
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0960
4.49***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0326
5.21***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9537
109.49***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days