RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
45.87%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
45.86%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
46.01%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1066 | 16.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8347 | 110.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0010 | -0.15 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0966 | 4.50*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0328 | 5.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9534 | 108.87*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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