CBOE Volatility Index

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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.1059	3.66***
βGARCH	0.8345	27.60***
γleverage	-0.0013	-0.05
λ₁tau intercept	0.1007	0.67
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0351	0.81
λ₃tau persistence	0.9506	15.14***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1059	3.66***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8345	27.60***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0013	-0.05
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.1007	0.67
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0351	0.81
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9506	15.14***

V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other RBOB Gasoline Analyses