Skip to main content
V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

45.87%

increased by 0.74%

1 Week

45.86%

increased by 0.73%

1 Month

46.01%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1066
16.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8347
110.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0010
-0.15
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0966
4.50***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0328
5.22***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9534
108.87***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days