RBOB Gasoline APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
36.10%
1 Week
36.89%
1 Month
39.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0657 | 3.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1163 | 5.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8837 | 41.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.0737 | 0.82 |
| δpower | 0.8354 | 4.42*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0657 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1163 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8837 | 41.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0737 | 0.82 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8354 | 4.42*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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