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RBOB Gasoline APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

36.10%

increased by 2.36%

1 Week

36.89%

increased by 3.15%

1 Month

39.62%

increased by 5.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifeδ = 0.84 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0657
3.10***
αARCH0.1163
5.44***
βGARCH0.8837
41.49***
γleverage0.0737
0.82
δpower0.8354
4.42***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0657
3.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1163
5.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8837
41.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0737
0.82
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8354
4.42***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days