ICE US Orange Juice APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
62.59%
1 Week
62.42%
1 Month
61.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.51 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0198 | 2.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0326 | 5.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9674 | 162.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.0206 | -0.21 |
| δpower | 1.5119 | 6.99*** |
0.996
Persistence154d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0198 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9674 | 162.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0206 | -0.21 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5119 | 6.99*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
154 days
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