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BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

57.32%

increased by 8.57%

1 Week

57.45%

increased by 8.70%

1 Month

57.98%

increased by 9.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 22167995 trading days (~87968.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~22167995 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0306
7.12***
αARCH0.2988
11.95***
βGARCH0.7012
30.13***
γleverage-0.0121
-0.69
δpower1.9996
11.55***

1.000

Persistence

22167995d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0306
7.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2988
11.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7012
30.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0121
-0.69
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9996
11.55***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

22167995 days