BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
57.32%
1 Week
57.45%
1 Month
57.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 22167995 trading days (~87968.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0306 | 7.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.2988 | 11.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7012 | 30.13*** |
| γleverage | -0.0121 | -0.69 |
| δpower | 1.9996 | 11.55*** |
1.000
Persistence22167995d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0306 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2988 | 11.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7012 | 30.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0121 | -0.69 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9996 | 11.55*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
22167995 days
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