V-Lab
BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
22.70%
1 Week
23.10%
1 Month
24.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 375 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 21.7239 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.3363 | 28.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 1,361.74*** |
| νDF | 7.9665 | 6.25*** |
0.998
Persistence375d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.7239 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3363 | 28.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,361.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9665 | 6.25*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
375 days
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