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BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

31.18%

decreased by 4.37%

1 Week

31.46%

decreased by 4.09%

1 Month

32.55%

decreased by 3.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 362 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

22.2641
9.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3542
109.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9981
5,144.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1347
23.86***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

362 days