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V-Lab

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

22.70%

decreased by 7.63%

1 Week

23.10%

decreased by 7.23%

1 Month

24.61%

decreased by 5.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 375 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~375 daysv = 7.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.7239
2.49**
αARCH0.3363
28.44***
βGARCH0.9982
1,361.74***
νDF7.9665
6.25***

0.998

Persistence

375d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.7239
2.49**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3363
28.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,361.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9665
6.25***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

375 days