BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
22.08%
decreased by 5.01%
1 Week
22.49%
decreased by 4.60%
1 Month
24.05%
decreased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 375 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~375 daysv = 7.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 21.7629 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.3362 | 28.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 1,361.74*** |
| νDF | 7.9528 | 6.28*** |
0.998
Persistence375d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.7629 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3362 | 28.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,361.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9528 | 6.28*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
375 days
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