V-Lab
BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
25.67%
increased by 2.31%
1 Week
26.04%
increased by 2.68%
1 Month
27.44%
increased by 4.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 362 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 22.2641 | 9.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3542 | 109.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 5,144.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1347 | 23.86*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
362 days
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