V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
38.06%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
37.93%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
37.42%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1402 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 37.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 752.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9999 | 5.88*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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