S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
24.65%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
24.71%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
24.92%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 daysv = 7.05 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1091 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0534 | 9.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9921 | 185.96*** |
| νDF | 7.0475 | 1.45 |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1091 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 9.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 185.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0475 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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