S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
31.05%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
31.01%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
30.84%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1144 | 6.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0535 | 37.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 739.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9974 | 5.83*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities