V-Lab
RBOB Gasoline GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
49.99%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
49.82%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Month
49.20%
decreased by 2.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.1200 | 5.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 36.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9880 | 424.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3656 | 7.77*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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