Skip to main content
V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

41.97%

increased by 1.84%

1 Week

41.98%

increased by 1.85%

1 Month

42.00%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.0707
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0631
9.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9879
105.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3739
1.92*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days