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V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

50.81%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

50.62%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

49.92%

decreased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.0881
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
36.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9879
420.54***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3686
7.71***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days