V-Lab
RBOB Gasoline GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
41.97%
increased by 1.84%
1 Week
41.98%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
42.00%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.0707 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9879 | 105.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3739 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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