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V-Lab

COMEX Gold GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

26.68%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

26.56%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

26.09%

decreased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of COMEX Gold GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2136
4.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0386
27.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9920
500.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9224
7.37***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days