V-Lab
COMEX Gold MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
16.08%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Week
16.61%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Month
17.94%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1065 | 3.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.3016 | 6.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6308 | 19.99*** |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1065 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3016 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6308 | 19.99*** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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