Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

COMEX Gold Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.69%

decreased by 2.80%

1 Week

17.97%

decreased by 2.52%

1 Month

18.71%

decreased by 1.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1041
4.30***
αARCH0.3326
7.29***
βGARCH0.6357
19.12***
γleverage-0.0695
-1.10

0.934

Persistence

10d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1041
4.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3326
7.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6357
19.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0695
-1.10

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days