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V-Lab
V-Lab

COMEX Gold Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.95%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

22.95%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

22.93%

decreased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8709
5.10***
αARCH0.0423
3.77***
βGARCH0.9402
64.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0077
-1.93*
γ20.0176
2.55**

0.983

Persistence

39d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8709
5.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0423
3.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9402
64.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0077
-1.93*
γ20.0176
2.55**

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days