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V-Lab
V-Lab

COMEX Gold MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.76%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

18.79%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

18.85%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0502
4.39***
βGARCH0.9495
82.93***
γleverage-0.0223
-1.53
λ₁tau intercept0.9179
0.15
λ₂forecast adj.0.2834
0.15
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0502
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9495
82.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0223
-1.53
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.9179
0.15
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2834
0.15
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days