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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.71%

increased by 1.57%

1 Week

19.77%

increased by 1.63%

1 Month

20.01%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 655 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 131% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~655 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 131% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0593
5.77***
βGARCH0.9565
111.83***
γleverage-0.0336
-3.27***
λ₁tau intercept0.0011
0.35
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9999
304.28***

0.999

Persistence

655d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
5.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9565
111.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0336
-3.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
0.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
304.28***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

655 days