S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.71%
1 Week
19.77%
1 Month
20.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 655 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 131% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0593 | 5.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9565 | 111.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0336 | -3.27*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0011 | 0.35 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9999 | 304.28*** |
0.999
Persistence655d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0593 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9565 | 111.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0336 | -3.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 304.28*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
655 days
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