V-Lab
S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
25.05%
1 Week
25.09%
1 Month
25.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 659 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 131% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9563 | 111.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0338 | -3.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 303.35*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
659 days
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