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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

25.05%

increased by 0.62%

1 Week

25.09%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

25.24%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 659 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 131% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
5.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9563
111.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0338
-3.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
0.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
303.35***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

659 days