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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

24.42%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

24.46%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

24.62%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 657 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 132% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0597
21.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9562
429.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0340
-13.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
40.33***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.11
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

657 days