V-Lab
S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.64%
1 Week
22.75%
1 Month
23.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5211 trading days (~20.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 149% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0440 | 6.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9690 | 185.07*** |
| γleverage | -0.0264 | -2.91*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.61 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1894 | 0.58 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence5211d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0440 | 6.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9690 | 185.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0264 | -2.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1894 | 0.58 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5211 days
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