Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.64%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

22.75%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

23.07%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5211 trading days (~20.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 149% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5211 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 149% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0440
6.29***
βGARCH0.9690
185.07***
γleverage-0.0264
-2.91***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.61
λ₂forecast adj.0.1894
0.58
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

1.000

Persistence

5211d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0440
6.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9690
185.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0264
-2.91***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1894
0.58
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5211 days