S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
24.42%
1 Week
24.46%
1 Month
24.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 657 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 132% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0597 | 21.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9562 | 429.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0340 | -13.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 40.33*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.11 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
657 days
Other S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities