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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

48.91%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

49.04%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

49.86%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 231% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 231% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.0416
5.64***
βGARCH0.9435
94.69***
γleverage-0.0290
-3.69***
λ₁tau intercept0.3508
2.92***
λ₂forecast adj.0.9159
18.91***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0416
5.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9435
94.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0290
-3.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3508
2.92***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9159
18.91***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days