S&P GSCI Cocoa Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
48.91%
1 Week
49.04%
1 Month
49.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 231% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.0416 | 5.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9435 | 94.69*** |
| γleverage | -0.0290 | -3.69*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3508 | 2.92*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9159 | 18.91*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0416 | 5.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9435 | 94.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0290 | -3.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3508 | 2.92*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9159 | 18.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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