V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
51.58%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
51.50%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
51.16%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 240 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~240 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0129 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0322 | 7.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9649 | 204.05*** |
0.997
Persistence240d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0129 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 7.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9649 | 204.05*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
240 days
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