S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.46%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Week
51.29%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Month
50.63%
decreased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0536 | 25.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 35.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9123 | 439.87*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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