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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

51.46%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Week

51.29%

decreased by 2.42%

1 Month

50.63%

decreased by 3.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0536
25.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0792
35.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9123
439.87***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days