V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
50.41%
decreased by 2.31%
1 Week
50.18%
decreased by 2.54%
1 Month
49.33%
decreased by 3.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1116 | 24.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 28.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8869 | 278.98*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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