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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

50.41%

decreased by 2.31%

1 Week

50.18%

decreased by 2.54%

1 Month

49.33%

decreased by 3.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1116
24.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0974
28.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8869
278.98***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days