V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
50.04%
decreased by 2.51%
1 Week
49.71%
decreased by 2.84%
1 Month
48.57%
decreased by 3.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0358 | 15.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1825 | 26.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9815 | 1,002.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0507 | -9.21*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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