V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
62.56%
decreased by 2.44%
1 Week
62.03%
decreased by 2.97%
1 Month
60.07%
decreased by 4.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1048 | 22.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0628 | 13.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8923 | 296.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0590 | 6.80*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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