NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.71%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Week
46.53%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Month
45.89%
decreased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1095 | 22.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 13.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8903 | 290.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0601 | 6.82*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
42 days
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