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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

53.04%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

52.73%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Month

51.59%

decreased by 2.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1048
22.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0629
13.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8923
296.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0589
6.79***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days