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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

46.71%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Week

46.53%

decreased by 2.42%

1 Month

45.89%

decreased by 3.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1095
22.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0632
13.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8903
290.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0601
6.82***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

42 days