V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.04%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
52.73%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
51.59%
decreased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1048 | 22.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 13.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8923 | 296.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0589 | 6.79*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
Other NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities