V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
41.01%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Week
40.94%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Month
40.74%
decreased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2574 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0937 | 1.95* |
| βGARCH | 0.8610 | 42.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.0100 | 0.15 |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2574 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0937 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 42.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0100 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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