V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.56%
decreased by 3.05%
1 Week
47.93%
decreased by 3.68%
1 Month
45.98%
decreased by 5.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2668 | 11.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0966 | 8.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8566 | 163.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0101 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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