V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
44.79%
increased by 11.72%
1 Week
44.45%
increased by 11.38%
1 Month
43.39%
increased by 10.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2503 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 1.89* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8640 | 43.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0107 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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