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V-Lab

NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

42.37%

decreased by 2.06%

1 Week

42.19%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Month

41.65%

decreased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2689
11.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0974
8.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8555
161.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0099
0.57

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days