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NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

34.81%

decreased by 1.61%

1 Week

35.26%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Month

36.61%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC

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graph of NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2643
2.90***
αARCH0.0956
2.00**
βGARCH0.8580
41.46***
γleverage0.0099
0.14

0.959

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2643
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0956
2.00**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8580
41.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0099
0.14

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

16 days