NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
34.07%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
34.57%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Month
36.07%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2546 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0929 | 1.93* |
| βGARCH | 0.8623 | 42.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.0097 | 0.14 |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2546 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 1.93* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 42.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0097 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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