NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
43.25%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
43.02%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
42.29%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2649 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0951 | 2.01** |
| βGARCH | 0.8580 | 41.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.0111 | 0.16 |
0.959
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2649 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0951 | 2.01** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8580 | 41.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0111 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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