NYMEX Palladium GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
42.37%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Week
42.19%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
41.65%
decreased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2689 | 11.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 8.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8555 | 161.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0099 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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