V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
17.57%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
17.61%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
17.77%
decreased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 5.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9204 | 139.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0022 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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