V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.41%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
18.43%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
18.47%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0254 | 5.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0626 | 5.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9206 | 139.42*** |
| γleverage | -0.0026 | -0.13 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0626 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9206 | 139.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0026 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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