S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.84%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
16.16%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
17.08%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.03) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0692 | 41.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1058 | 64.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8462 | 679.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0348 | -2.42** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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