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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.84%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

16.16%

increased by 0.73%

1 Month

17.08%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.03) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0692
41.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1058
64.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8462
679.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0348
-2.42**

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days