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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Soybeans Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.88%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

18.97%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

19.30%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Soybeans Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.16) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0256
19.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
40.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9224
525.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1597
-7.19***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days