S&P GSCI Soybeans Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.88%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
18.97%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Month
19.30%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.16) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0256 | 19.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0633 | 40.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9224 | 525.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1597 | -7.19*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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