V-Lab
S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.66%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
17.77%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
18.14%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8548 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 34.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 692.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8367 | 5.90*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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