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S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

17.66%

increased by 0.51%

1 Week

17.77%

increased by 0.62%

1 Month

18.14%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8548
8.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0556
34.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9881
692.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8367
5.90***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days