Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.83%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

15.99%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

16.57%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8577
8.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0558
34.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9881
694.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8591
5.87***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days