V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.45%
1 Week
21.65%
1 Month
22.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.2039 | 1.56 |
| αARCH | 0.0390 | 10.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9929 | 203.55*** |
| νDF | 5.5565 | 2.05** |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2039 | 1.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 10.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9929 | 203.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5565 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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