V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.74%
increased by 1.21%
1 Week
21.93%
increased by 1.40%
1 Month
22.65%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2184 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 41.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 800.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5410 | 8.18*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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