V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
21.15%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
21.49%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
22.71%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.33) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0437 | 15.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0478 | 23.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9411 | 420.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3304 | -6.75*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
Other S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Commodities