S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
32.90%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
32.68%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
31.90%
decreased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.42) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0489 | 17.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 40.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9104 | 423.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4233 | 21.11*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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