S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
30.96%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
30.86%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Month
30.50%
decreased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9523 | 14.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 32.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 647.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.2268 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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