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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

30.96%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

30.86%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Month

30.50%

decreased by 1.78%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9523
14.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
32.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9854
647.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.2268
3.93***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days