S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.80%
1 Week
22.78%
1 Month
22.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 260 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3974 | 1.31 |
| αscore | 0.0380 | 15.42*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9973 | 527.13*** |
| νDF | 4.7184 | 5.49*** |
0.997
Persistence260d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3974 | 1.31 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0380 | 15.42*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 527.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7184 | 5.49*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
260 days
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