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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

26.96%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

26.98%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

27.06%

decreased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 393 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 130% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0582
22.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9565
449.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0329
-12.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0007
28.50***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.15
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

393 days