V-Lab
S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
26.96%
1 Week
26.98%
1 Month
27.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 393 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 130% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0582 | 22.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9565 | 449.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0329 | -12.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0007 | 28.50*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
393 days
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