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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

29.21%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

29.36%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

29.84%

decreased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0525
15.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8773
105.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0404
8.33***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0163
5.49***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0272
3.93***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9676
122.92***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days