S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
24.36%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
24.78%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
26.05%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0526 | 3.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8765 | 44.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.0404 | 2.45** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0165 | 1.45 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0275 | 2.15** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9672 | 60.67*** |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0526 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8765 | 44.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 2.45** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0165 | 1.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0275 | 2.15** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 60.67*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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