V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
26.55%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
27.09%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
28.39%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8759 | 44.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0405 | 2.45** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0166 | 1.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0277 | 2.13** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9669 | 59.91*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
Other S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities