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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

22.06%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

22.61%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

23.95%

increased by 1.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0527
3.80***
βGARCH0.8777
45.39***
γleverage0.0402
2.46**
λ₁tau intercept0.0164
1.43
λ₂forecast adj.0.0268
2.10**
λ₃tau persistence0.9678
60.66***

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0527
3.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8777
45.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0402
2.46**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0164
1.43
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0268
2.10**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9678
60.66***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days