S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
29.21%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
29.36%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
29.84%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 15.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8773 | 105.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 8.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0163 | 5.49*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0272 | 3.93*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9676 | 122.92*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
Other S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities