S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.06%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
22.61%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
23.95%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0527 | 3.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8777 | 45.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.0402 | 2.46** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0164 | 1.43 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0268 | 2.10** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9678 | 60.66*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0527 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8777 | 45.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0402 | 2.46** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0164 | 1.43 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0268 | 2.10** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9678 | 60.66*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
Other S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities