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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

24.36%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

24.78%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

26.05%

increased by 0.94%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0526
3.76***
βGARCH0.8765
44.66***
γleverage0.0404
2.45**
λ₁tau intercept0.0165
1.45
λ₂forecast adj.0.0275
2.15**
λ₃tau persistence0.9672
60.67***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0526
3.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8765
44.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0404
2.45**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0165
1.45
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0275
2.15**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9672
60.67***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days