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V-Lab

CME Live Cattle MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

18.06%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

19.80%

increased by 1.47%

1 Month

18.94%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 266% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0704
5.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0989
3.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1871
6.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4853
0.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4529
0.20
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1838
0.05

Persistence:

0.263

Half-life:

1 days