V-Lab
CME Live Cattle MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.06%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
19.80%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
18.94%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 266% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0704 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0989 | 3.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1871 | 6.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4853 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4529 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1838 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.263
Half-life:
1 days
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