S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
19.78%
1 Week
19.78%
1 Month
19.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 35% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0724 | 9.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9097 | 94.71*** |
| γleverage | -0.0187 | -2.00** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0018 | 0.88 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0121 | 1.82* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9870 | 134.08*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0724 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9097 | 94.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0187 | -2.00** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0018 | 0.88 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0121 | 1.82* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9870 | 134.08*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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