Chicago SRW Wheat MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
26.46%
1 Week
27.25%
1 Month
28.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 120% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0834 | 5.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8120 | 29.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.0455 | -2.76*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1528 | 1.59 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1754 | 1.97** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7862 | 7.07*** |
0.873
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0834 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8120 | 29.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0455 | -2.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1528 | 1.59 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1754 | 1.97** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7862 | 7.07*** |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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