V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
31.16%
1 Week
31.00%
1 Month
30.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 115% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 23.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8092 | 57.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0450 | -9.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1513 | 0.74 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1764 | 0.78 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7859 | 2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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