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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

31.16%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

31.00%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

30.76%

decreased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Chicago SRW Wheat MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 115% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0842
23.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8092
57.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0450
-9.11***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1513
0.74
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1764
0.78
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7859
2.83***

Persistence:

0.871

Half-life:

5 days