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Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

25.27%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

25.43%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

26.02%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 10.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.0475
2.81***
αscore0.0494
6.67***
βpersistence0.9877
209.18***
νDF10.2058
0.76

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.0475
2.81***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0494
6.67***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9877
209.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.2058
0.76

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days