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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

34.99%

increased by 1.48%

1 Week

34.93%

increased by 1.42%

1 Month

34.67%

increased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0128
2.43**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0471
6.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
199.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3634
0.80

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days