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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

32.67%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

32.65%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

32.58%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0052
9.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0475
25.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
794.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4073
3.20***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days