V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
34.67%
increased by 0.93%
1 Week
34.61%
increased by 0.87%
1 Month
34.38%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 04:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0111 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0470 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 200.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3780 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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