Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
32.86%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
32.83%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
32.73%
decreased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9851 | 10.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0477 | 26.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 805.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5189 | 3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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