V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
32.67%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
32.65%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
32.58%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0052 | 9.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0475 | 25.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 794.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4073 | 3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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