Skip to main content
V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

32.86%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

32.83%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Month

32.73%

decreased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9851
10.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0477
26.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9884
805.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5189
3.18***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days