V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
34.99%
increased by 1.48%
1 Week
34.93%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
34.67%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0128 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0471 | 6.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 199.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3634 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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