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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

26.65%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

26.82%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

27.40%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0509
3.56***
αARCH0.0490
7.15***
βGARCH0.9373
109.93***
γleverage-0.3187
-1.79*

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0509
3.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0490
7.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9373
109.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3187
-1.79*

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days