Chicago SRW Wheat AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
26.65%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
26.82%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
27.40%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0509 | 3.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0490 | 7.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9373 | 109.93*** |
| γleverage | -0.3187 | -1.79* |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0509 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0490 | 7.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9373 | 109.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3187 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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