V-Lab
CBOT Corn AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
26.77%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
26.89%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
27.33%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0554 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0724 | 8.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9126 | 89.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.0865 | 0.53 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0554 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0724 | 8.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9126 | 89.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0865 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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