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V-Lab

CBOT Corn AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

27.09%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

27.21%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

27.64%

decreased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOT Corn AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.08) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0571
18.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
32.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9100
353.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0828
2.06**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days