CBOT Corn AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.09%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
27.21%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
27.64%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.08) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0571 | 18.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 32.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9100 | 353.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0828 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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