V-Lab
CBOT Corn MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
32.27%
increased by 8.29%
1 Week
31.32%
increased by 7.34%
1 Month
30.83%
increased by 6.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 120% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0461 | 2.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7494 | 15.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.0553 | 2.04** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.7347 | 3.49*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7715 | 4.15*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.823
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7494 | 15.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0553 | 2.04** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7347 | 3.49*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7715 | 4.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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