CBOT Corn MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
27.00%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
27.10%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
26.76%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0476 | 12.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7478 | 49.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0548 | 7.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7333 | 0.49 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7723 | 0.48 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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