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V-Lab

CBOT Corn MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

23.25%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

24.42%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

24.48%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Corn MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 117% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 117% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0452
2.82***
βGARCH0.7512
15.85***
γleverage0.0530
1.99**
λ₁tau intercept0.7321
3.49***
λ₂forecast adj.0.7708
4.16***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.823

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0452
2.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7512
15.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0530
1.99**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7321
3.49***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7708
4.16***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.823

Half-life:

4 days