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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOT Corn MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

32.27%

increased by 8.29%

1 Week

31.32%

increased by 7.34%

1 Month

30.83%

increased by 6.85%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Corn MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 120% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0461
2.85***
βGARCH0.7494
15.97***
γleverage0.0553
2.04**
λ₁tau intercept0.7347
3.49***
λ₂forecast adj.0.7715
4.15***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.823

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0461
2.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7494
15.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0553
2.04**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7347
3.49***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7715
4.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.823

Half-life:

4 days