CBOT Corn GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
25.57%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
25.74%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
26.35%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0561 | 4.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0606 | 4.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9128 | 94.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0236 | 0.82 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0561 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0606 | 4.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9128 | 94.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0236 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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