V-Lab
CBOT Corn GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.66%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
24.87%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
25.61%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0569 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0608 | 4.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9117 | 94.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0251 | 0.87 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0569 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0608 | 4.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9117 | 94.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0251 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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