CBOT Corn Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
28.35%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
28.17%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
27.59%
decreased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7616 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0795 | 6.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8798 | 63.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0066 | 0.51 |
| γ2 | -0.0356 | -1.84* |
| γ3 | 0.0502 | 4.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.0258 | -3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
Other CBOT Corn Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities