V-Lab
CBOT Corn Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
30.09%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
29.80%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
28.89%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7608 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8820 | 64.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0062 | 0.48 |
| γ2 | -0.0350 | -1.80* |
| γ3 | 0.0501 | 4.27*** |
| γ4 | -0.0262 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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