V-Lab
CBOT Corn Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
26.24%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
26.22%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
26.18%
decreased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7611 | 7.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8824 | 64.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0061 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | -0.0347 | -1.79* |
| γ3 | 0.0499 | 4.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.0261 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
Other CBOT Corn Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities