V-Lab
CBOT Corn Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.35%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
25.41%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
25.59%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7592 | 7.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0767 | 6.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8841 | 64.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0059 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0343 | -1.77* |
| γ3 | 0.0498 | 4.25*** |
| γ4 | -0.0263 | -3.46*** |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7592 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0767 | 6.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8841 | 64.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0059 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0343 | -1.77* |
| γ3 | 0.0498 | 4.25*** |
| γ4 | -0.0263 | -3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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