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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

27.36%

decreased by 1.73%

1 Week

29.39%

increased by 0.30%

1 Month

36.03%

increased by 6.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7778
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2352
2.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7557
10.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.4101
0.40
γ2-2.3380
-1.46
γ35.4247
3.76***
γ4-7.7675
-2.86***
γ58.4505
2.04**
γ6-6.5858
-1.96**
γ73.2067
2.42**
γ8-1.0888
-2.18**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days