V-Lab
LME/COMEX Aluminum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
23.64%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
25.98%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
33.43%
increased by 7.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1057 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2383 | 3.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7551 | 11.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.4315 | 0.41 |
| γ2 | -2.3556 | -1.43 |
| γ3 | 5.4484 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -8.1490 | -2.88*** |
| γ5 | 9.3740 | 2.07** |
| γ6 | -7.3656 | -1.98** |
| γ7 | 3.3577 | 2.37** |
| γ8 | -1.0116 | -1.98** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
Other LME/COMEX Aluminum Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities