LME/COMEX Aluminum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
27.36%
decreased by 1.73%
1 Week
29.39%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
36.03%
increased by 6.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7778 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2352 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7557 | 10.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.4101 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | -2.3380 | -1.46 |
| γ3 | 5.4247 | 3.76*** |
| γ4 | -7.7675 | -2.86*** |
| γ5 | 8.4505 | 2.04** |
| γ6 | -6.5858 | -1.96** |
| γ7 | 3.2067 | 2.42** |
| γ8 | -1.0888 | -2.18** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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