V-Lab
LME/COMEX Aluminum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
33.62%
decreased by 3.92%
1 Week
34.74%
decreased by 2.80%
1 Month
38.68%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7304 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2308 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7603 | 11.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.4021 | 0.39 |
| γ2 | -2.3158 | -1.44 |
| γ3 | 5.4532 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -8.4605 | -2.89*** |
| γ5 | 10.1694 | 2.12** |
| γ6 | -8.0504 | -2.03** |
| γ7 | 3.4963 | 2.36** |
| γ8 | -0.9497 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
Other LME/COMEX Aluminum Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities