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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

23.64%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Week

25.98%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

33.43%

increased by 7.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1057
1.86*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2383
3.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7551
11.32***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.4315
0.41
γ2-2.3556
-1.43
γ35.4484
3.80***
γ4-8.1490
-2.88***
γ59.3740
2.07**
γ6-7.3656
-1.98**
γ73.3577
2.37**
γ8-1.0116
-1.98**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days