S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
44.60%
increased by 2.72%
1 Week
44.65%
increased by 2.77%
1 Month
44.82%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7595 | 3.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0843 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 93.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0068 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | -0.0201 | -1.66* |
| γ3 | 0.0255 | 3.94*** |
| γ4 | -0.0173 | -3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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