V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.83%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
39.10%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
40.05%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7540 | 3.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0842 | 8.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8990 | 93.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0063 | 0.70 |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -1.60 |
| γ3 | 0.0250 | 3.91*** |
| γ4 | -0.0172 | -3.83*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7540 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8990 | 93.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0063 | 0.70 |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -1.60 |
| γ3 | 0.0250 | 3.91*** |
| γ4 | -0.0172 | -3.83*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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