V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.03%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
44.11%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
44.40%
decreased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7559 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8990 | 93.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0064 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.0195 | -1.61 |
| γ3 | 0.0251 | 3.92*** |
| γ4 | -0.0173 | -3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities