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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

44.60%

increased by 2.72%

1 Week

44.65%

increased by 2.77%

1 Month

44.82%

increased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7595
3.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0843
8.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8987
93.21***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0068
0.74
γ2-0.0201
-1.66*
γ30.0255
3.94***
γ4-0.0173
-3.82***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days